We are currently on a military collision course with China. But China does not want to get into a slug-fest with us involving jets, missiles, carriers, subs, tanks, nukes, troops, etc. That could render the northern hemisphere unlivable. Beijing might ask, “How to get rid of the USA without them ever knowing we did it? And get it done with no cost to us and no drama?”

In Annie Jacobsen’s book “Nuclear War,” she gets most of the isolated processes correct, but the book is loaded with factual errors. Her hypothetical scenario unfolds in a way that does not follow reality (how airplanes fly, guns work, which presidents did what in the past, etc). Some of her wrong statements could have been avoided with simple Google searches.

If a full northern hemisphere nuclear war occurs, the surface of the earth north of the equator will be left uninhabitable. Heinlein’s “Farnham’s Freehold” addresses south of the equator. This is partially why billionaires are building bunkers in New Zealand. As with any scenario, there are a lot of assumptions and guesswork. Here might be a more likely scenario (In my opinion) than the one in Annie’s book.

A shipping container comes into the port of New York City/New Jersey. It is from Pakistan. It has a very special cargo (at the behest of China). It is loaded, like thousands of others every day, on a standard 53′ long tractor-trailer and driven away … driven by a special man with special training. He drives very carefully. The container arrives at the rented warehouse in the state of Kansas. A second and third container come the same way to the ports of Los Angeles and Seattle from Turkey and Indonesia. All three containers are delivered to this warehouse on the outskirts of Kansas City. The solid fuel missile is assembled in the warehouse behind closed doors. The assembly takes two weeks. That’s ok, they are not in a rush. It is a simple device: it just has to fly straight up, nothing more. A simple gyro and PID controller (for control surfaces) is mostly all that is needed to keep it pointed to the sky. The programming is straightforward. Experienced model rocket hobbyists do this to ensure their rockets do not fly sideways. There is no navigation or guidance system. Thus, a simpler problem than Nazi Germany faced with the V2 rocket. No need for a Hwasong-17. It is wheeled out in the middle of the night onto the warehouse’s parking lot. It is launched. Minutes later, at a set altitude, the rocket’s EMP payload explodes.

Note: Right now, any launched ICBM and all the orbiting satellites above the earth are tracked by the USA. We know their origins and flight paths. We know who sent it. This Kansas launch, however, would take the FBI a while to research, even if they could get their cell phones and cars to work again. But those devices are now forever dead. All modern electronics and the power grid are now down. For good. Almost every vehicle will not start. Not even a transistor AM radio works. No ATMs. No gas pumps. We are back in the 1800s in an instant. You don’t need super sophisticated “hypersonic / A.I. / quantum computing / blah blah” to do this. North Korea, China, and Russia have this ability today. Iran wants to join the club. Google “Starfish Prime.”

The third and most reliable leg of our nuclear deterrence / retaliatory triad are the subs that can launch nukes (space will one day be the fourth leg). Subs are the best protected from EMP radiation. But subs to launch against who? Who is behind the decapitating EMP attack in this scenario? No one will ever know outside of China. Port authority shipping records, CCTV camera video feeds from Kansas highways, etc, are toast, and no one can get to the office to work on it anyway. After 9/11, we were able to marshal electronics and communications records to figure out who and what exactly happened. This time, we will be permanently in the dark. Another “unsolved mystery.”

Days pass, then weeks. Still no electric power. Food is not being delivered. Whatever is in refrigerators rots. No water pressure or sewer services in urban areas. Social breakdown is infinitely more violent than the BLM riots of 2020. China will offer “immediate and unconditional humanitarian support, including food, power, medicines, law-enforcement / security, etc.” The PLA (with our desperate government’s blessing) will have its first Forward Operating Bases in the now-defunct California airports. Chinese aircraft, electronics, sensors, radar, etc, were of course not affected by the EMP, having been far away from the blast in Asia. The Trojan Horse begins arriving. Interestingly, the airport in Lake Clear would make a perfect spot for a regional humanitarian FOB in this hypothetical scenario.

Of course, this is just talk. It’s all tin-foil-hat unless it happens. Interestingly, China is not expecting America to do this exact stunt on them. Russia did not expect Ukraine’s “Operation Spider-Web” this past June.

Perhaps our government can use some of that “A.I.” mojo so many people talk about to be on the lookout for this. Maybe this time they will stop it, or something like it, before catastrophe strikes.

Just a thought …. and …. pass the tinfoil please ….

——

Ira Weinberg lives in Saranac Lake.