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Roller coaster day of weather for Tri-Lakes

Early morning ice to rain, back to cold by evening

SARANAC LAKE — Winter is showing no signs of slowing down. Another mixed precipitation storm, accompanied by gusty winds, is pushing through the Tri-Lakes region today. Behind it, temperatures will plummet, with highs on Tuesday expected to remain stuck in the single digits.

The storm began late Sunday, with some pockets of freezing rain locally. Most of that precipitation was expected to have switched over to “plain” rain by sunrise as southerly winds aloft continued surging mild air into the region. Up to two-tenths of an inch of freezing rain is expected for the Tri-Lakes, though today’s rain and eventual above-freezing temperatures will help melt that down as the morning progresses. The bulk of the precipitation is expected to fall as plain rain, with around eight-tenths of an inch expected.

A different story, however, is playing out elsewhere in the North Country, including the St. Lawrence Valley, southern Essex County and portions of Clinton County outside of the Champlain Valley. There, below-freezing temperatures are predicted to persist longer into mid-morning, resulting in greater ice accumulations, upwards of half an inch. The state Route 3 corridor between Bloomingdale and Plattsburgh — including Vermontville, Clayburg, Redford, Moffitsville, Saranac and Picketts Corners — could be impacted by this.

The National Weather Service’s Burlington, Vermont office, which serves much of northern New York, issued an ice storm warning for western Essex and northern Franklin counties, as well as winter weather advisories for southern Franklin, eastern Essex and Clinton counties through 4 p.m. today. These alerts are as of press time Sunday evening. They could be modified, extended or cancelled early, depending on how conditions play out.

It’s an especially difficult storm to predict, given that small temperature tweaks — a degree or two — can make the difference between a quick switchover to plain rain, or a prolonged freezing rain event. Additionally, weather conditions could be highly variable, with roads changing from wet to icy, or vice versa, over the course of an extended commute. NWS Burlington Meteorologist Marlon Verasamy said the best advice is to take it slow this morning and to stay off the roads if possible. By late morning, almost all of northern New York should have warmed above freezing.

It’s a bit of a flip from the usual weather setup. Instead of the higher elevations having the coldest temperatures, it’s the lower elevations. The cold air mass that was over the region for the weekend, and its proximity to this storm, prevented the approaching mild air from “mixing,” or making its way down to the very lowest levels in the atmosphere as readily as it typically does.

Freezing rain occurs when most of the atmosphere — from cloud to ground — is above freezing, causing the water to fall and hit the ground as a liquid droplet, before below-freezing temperatures at or just above the ground cause that liquid to freeze on contact, resulting in a slick sheet of flat ice.

Although the above-freezing temperatures should melt most of the ice by noon across the Tri-Lakes, the thaw won’t last long. Temperatures are expected to crest around 40 degrees Fahrenheit before falling back to freezing by 4 p.m. This could lead to icy surfaces — once again — on any untreated surfaces or roadways as the fallen rain and melted snow will refreeze going into the evening.

Verasamy said that although rivers and streams will rise today, there isn’t anticipated to be enough precipitation and snowmelt — given the relatively short duration of the above-freezing temperatures — to cause any flooding concerns.

He added that there could be some isolated power outages and fallen trees from the wind, although it’s not forecasted to be as strong as the Dec. 19 storm, which saw widespread impacts and gusts reaching 112 mph atop Whiteface Mountain.

This time, Verasamy said gusts should peak at closer to 50 mph, with sustained winds between 10 and 25 mph across the Tri-Lakes. The winds are expected to be calm this morning, increase throughout the afternoon with the passage of the cold front and continue into Tuesday, before gradually diminishing as the day goes on.

Verasamy said even though Monday night and Tuesday’s ambient air temperatures are not expected to be as cold as last weekend, the breezy conditions are expected to create wind chill values as low as 15 below zero during that time.

Though temperatures will be a bit warmer on Wednesday, Verasamy said there are no signs of above-freezing temperatures — after today — for the foreseeable future.

“We’re not really breaking out of this cold pattern,” he said. “We see the warm, but it’s been very, very brief. And then it’s followed by another cold shot of air afterwards.”

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