The largest oil producer in the world is the USA. Not Iran, Saudi Arabia or Russia. Most of that American production is consumed here. We also have a lot of idle, unused wells and capacity, as well as untapped fields. When the price of oil rises high enough, wells are turned on in Texas, etc. When the price of oil drops below some magic number they are shut off. Why? Why not have them on line to sell oil all the time?

It costs more to pump than revenue received below a certain price. Only above some price-per-barrel it is profitable. Saudi Arabia (and others) know this. They do not want the price per barrel to go too high. They can pump much cheaper than we can. Once oil goes high the American pumps go on line and eat their (Saudi, Iran, Russia, other OPEC) profits and market share. But used or not, our capacity is still there: equipment above ground and fossil resources in ground.

Waiting.

Our unused hydrocarbon capacity is as big as Iran’s current pumping capacity (Alaska, fracking issues, etc aside). If Iran’s production were shut down there would be a global spike in prices for a while before our super capacity kicks in. Yes, Russia (and others) would see a jump in prices. But Russia would struggle to deliver extra oil. Russia has transmission bottle necks that pumping more will struggle to overcome. The tankers available to Russia are limited in number. The “Power of Siberia-2” pipeline is hitting roadblocks (for Mongolian and Chinese self interest reasons). Then there are current sanctions hitting both Russia and Iran. If our extra capacity comes on line because Iran is out of the picture, America could become the oil producing giant OPEC worries about.

What about the other big oil producers? In this scenario Venezuela, Nigeria and others might not pump much more due to aged and non-maintained infrastructure. Saudi has the most spare capacity and most modern equipment. If Iran goes off line, Saudi might jump in and take market share as they did in the past. Iran might lash out at Saudi Arabia and hit Arabian oil machinery with drones and missiles as it did in the past. If Iran hit Saudi infrastructure hard … who knows? Thus we might not get all of the open market share, but a lot (if not most) of it. The devil is in the details.

Extra revenue (pumped, leased rights, etc.) from this hypothetical scenario could be used to slow down the $35 trillion dollar national debt. If not flushed down the toilet as hand outs, free-bees and vote buying giveaways, we might see the $35 trillion possibly stop growing. It could open up new and good paying jobs for thousands of Americans and weaken Iran’s and Russia’s power in the world. It could give us another non-military tool to deal with China and others.

Hydrocarbons are not just for fuels but plastics, paints, epoxy, concrete, fertilizers and much more.

Fossil fuels pays for Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. It fund Russia to buy weapons from Iran and pay tens of thousands of North Korean soldiers. We, in the West, pay Iran/Russia/Venezuela/Saudi/etc for their oil. They use the profits as they want. No oversight. No strings attached. Oil revenue winds up in the hands of Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and other Iranian proxies through Iran.

National embassies, by international treaty, belong to the nation they represent. For example: America’s embassy in England is legally part of America. English civilians, police, military, even King Charles can not set foot there without our permission. The American embassy in Iran is, till today, legally part of America. American soil. Starting in 1979, Iran has invaded, destroyed and held our embassy in Teheran and still holds it right now. Iran took 52 Americans hostage for 444 days on American soil. They were abused and tortured. Additionally, Americans (and others) have been killed and held hostage (off and on) since 1979 by Iranian proxies worldwide. Perhaps Iran’s main source of money going away is long overdue.

Would this scenario affect the environment? In theory (very simplified) the only change would be who is pumping and where, not how much is pumped or consumed. Many other factors would come into play (ex: global transportation, etc). Many unknowns. Again: the devil is in the details.

At our current rate of dollars burn and debt growth (if it continues) we will suffer a catastrophic financial collapse within a generation. Social collapse/drastic upheaval follows financial collapse. Think Germany less than a century ago. Today the federal government pays more on just loan interest (just interest!) than it spends on the entire USA military. Our military budget is the largest on earth. These interest payments are growing every year. The principal is growing. Rapidly. Do you like your 401K, pension, health care, stable society, Government-financed Social Services, reliable utilities and well stocked affordable supermarkets? That will likely change if a financial collapse happens.

“Big deal! So what! How does this affect me?” The benefits of avoiding social collapse aside, imagine if you had loads of debt and crushing interest payments but could now pay it all off and have additional income to boot with only slight effort.

This “Iran” scenario could give America much needed non-military options to use when dealing with slippery dictatorships that hate us. A possible alternative to bombs, sanctions and tariffs. China and Iran might think more carefully about their behavior if America takes Iran’s market share.

IF our economy stays on its current trajectory AND IF this “Iran Scenario” occurs with no glitches AND IF it we use the windfall wisely IT MIGHT stave off national bankruptcy and social upheavals that will follow nationally and here locally. Lots of “IFs.” Nothing is guaranteed, perhaps worth looking at?

Just a thought …

(Ira Weinberg lives in Saranac Lake)