Rainy stretch ahead
As weather pattern shifts, conditions likely to offer some drought relief after dry summer, early fall
SARANAC LAKE — Monday’s soaking rain brought welcome relief to dangerously dry conditions that came to a crescendo across the North Country over the weekend when a series of wildland fires broke out as winds kicked up ahead of a cold front that eventually pushed across the region to start the work week.
Although one inch, or so, of rain was far from enough to alleviate the drought conditions that have developed across the Northeast over the past few months, it was a step in the right direction. Perhaps more importantly, it marked a pattern shift that is likely to ensure more consistent chances for rain over the next week or so, giving the region an opportunity to turn back the drought.
This comes courtesy of an upper-level low pressure system, according to National Weather Service Burlington Lead Meteorologist Marvin Boyd. He said these types of storms tend to move much more slowly over an area than a typical low pressure system, which tend to track along the jet stream and get pushed in a more-or-less west to east direction.
Upper-level lows, on the other hand, tend to get off this track. They disconnect from the jet stream’s main wind flow. Rather than being pushed along, they tend to spin in place over an area, much like a car tire stuck in the mud. The spinning helps to keep revolving bands of rain over a region.
Boyd said the jet stream is always in flux, but it can take several days for its direction to change enough where it eventually reorients and pushes the upper low out of the way. That’s why there’s continual chances of rain and rain showers through the weekend.
“There’ll be chances for showers basically into the weekend,” Boyd said. “Definitely a wetter pattern. Any rain right now is beneficial — but we’ve got a long way to go to end the drought.”
Boyd cautioned that even though the risk to wildland fires today is less than a few days ago, there’s a bit of a lag for the rainfall to be absorbed by some of the larger trees. Even though things may seem damp, he said these larger trees can take up to four days to adequately take in the water, and reduce their fire risk.
“The fire agencies still don’t want people out there doing anything that’s going to create sparks, especially in the denser tree stands because they’re not as resilent, or as quick, to get the moisture to come up in them,” he said.
Aside from this upper-level low, Boyd added that late fall tends to see more active storm patterns as the Northern Hemisphere transitions into winter. He said this is just a trend, and beyond this week, it’s too far out to reliably determine when and how much rain the region could see at any given point.
For the meteorological foreseeable future, though, Boyd said it’s a promising trend after one of the driest summers the region has seen in decades.