SARANAC LAKE — Tuesday was the hottest Feb. 27 on record in Saranac Lake, according to meteorologists, and the mercury is getting a workout, with a rapid 42-degree warmup on Tuesday morning and another fast turn to freezing temperatures predicted for Wednesday night.

With the fluctuating temperatures this week, meteorologists are forecasting potential flooding along the AuSable River on Wednesday and ice conditions on the roads on Thursday.

Jessica Neiles, a lead meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont, said a warm and dry air mass is in place now ahead of a strong cold front, which is on its way. But the cold won’t last.

It’s supposed to be closer to seasonal temperatures on Thursday, Neiles said, but by Friday it is supposed to warm back up above normal. This warmth is projected to last through the weekend.

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Record temperatures

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The previous record high temperature for Feb. 27 in Saranac Lake’s 121-year record was 59 degrees in 2000, according to Neiles. The NWS’ records indicate that temperatures hit 60 between 1 and 3 p.m. on Tuesday.

“All of our climate sites have a new record high temperature today,” Neiles said on Tuesday. “It’s the warmest it’s been in over 20 years.”

All the previous NWS-Burlington records for that day were set in the year 2000. The previous record was 62 in Massena, St. Lawrence County, in the year 2000. It was 67 degrees there on Tuesday.

The change for the very unseasonable weather came on quickly. The NWS-Burlington singled out Saranac Lake in a post on X on Tuesday, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.

“In a matter of three hours, Saranac Lake has risen from 18 to 53 degrees,” the post reads.

This change happened between 6:55 and 9:51 a.m.

“It’s crazy,” Neiles said.

Tuesday’s rapid temperature change won’t be the last one this week.

“It’s probably going to be similar in the other direction on Wednesday night,” she added.

These warm and cold fronts have a sharp temperature gradient, she said.

Through the warm front, record high temperatures are predicted again on Wednesday, Neiles added.

The high temperature record for Feb. 28 in Saranac Lake is 55. The NWS forecast predicted a temperature of 59 on Wednesday as of Tuesday afternoon. Neiles also said the overnight minimum temperature between Tuesday and Wednesday was forecast to be the highest on record. The record is 34 degrees. The forecast calls for 40 degrees.

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Weather patterns

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Paul Smith’s College natural science professor Curt Stager said the Adirondacks have always had mild winters and mid-winter thaws. Those are normal. What is unusual is the length and intensity of these warm spells recently, he said. He said these trends will continue as long as humans pollute the planet with greenhouse gasses, which trap heat on the earth.

The only way to stop this, he said, is to switch from powering civilization on fossil fuels to non-polluting energy sources.

“The faster we do it, the less warming we’re going to have,” Stager said. “But some warming is already baked into the system.”

This past December was the second warmest December on record in the Adirondacks, according to Stager. The warmest December was in 2015. Saranac Lake’s meteorological records date back to 1903.

Last year as a whole was the second-warmest year on record in the Adirondacks, tied with 1998 — 2012 was the warmest.

More severe weather translates to more damage to property and a larger impact on quality of life.

This past summer, Canadian wildfires sparked by lightning strikes burned millions of acres of land and cast a thick haze of smoke down through the United States. Severe flooding in July tore through the Long Lake area, destroying roads, bridges and homes. In December, warmth and rain brought winter flooding along the AuSable River in Keene and Jay and in Tupper Lake.

An unseasonably warm winter made for a slow start to this skiing season, led to ice fishing derbies around the Tri-Lakes being cancelled throughout the last month and melted the Saranac Lake Winter Carnival Ice Palace by the second weekend of festivities.

“This is record-breaking warmth for northern New York,” Neiles said. “It’s pretty likely we’re going to record the warmest winter on record.”

Meteorological winter spans the months of December, January and February, and though it won’t end until after Feb. 29, Neiles said even with Thursday’s cold temperatures, this will still likely set the record.

Globally, 2023 was the hottest year on record. January broke the global record for being the warmest January on record, being 2.74-degrees warmer than pre-industrial levels. The previous record was set in 2020.

National meteorologists and studies chalk the warm weather up to three things: Warm air jet streams “blasting” warm air from the south into the north; climate change, which has altered the routes of these jet streams; and the El Nino weather pattern, which also impacts jet streams, the Associated Press reported this week.

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Flooding, ice conditions

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All this warm weather brings a potential for flooding.

“The snow pack is certainly ripe out there. It’s ready to melt,” Neiles said. “With the warm and dry air and the gusty winds, it’s a pretty good recipe for some melting snow.”

She said AuSable River is forecast to touch flood state on Wednesday, and they are “keeping a close eye” on it.

“The temperatures are going to drop so quickly overnight, Wednesday night into Thursday, that we’re probably going to have some pretty icy conditions out there,” Neiles said. “After all this snow melt and rain there’s going to be standing water and it’s all going to freeze.”

Stager said one warm spell won’t destroy the ice on the lakes, but contributes to overall less and less-safe ice.

“We still have thick ice, but from here on out, it’s going to be more and more risky especially near the edges and … where the water is moving,” Stager said.

Many people have been skating the clear surface of the Cascade Lakes, and Stager said he eyeballed around a foot of ice on there.

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Wind advisory

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The NWS has also issued a wind advisory for much of the area on Wednesday and Thursday with high winds predicted as the fronts move, before and behind each front. In the Adirondacks there are predicted gusts of 50 to 60 miles per hour from Wednesday afternoon all through Thursday.

“That’s pretty strong,” Neiles said. “That could cause some isolated power outages.”

These gusts could reach up into the 70s on mountaintops, she added.

Neiles said there is a potential for rain and thunderstorms as the fronts move on Wednesday. This rain is expected to change to snow overnight into Thursday.

“It’s kind of a little of everything with this system,” Neiles said.