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New COVID spike said to be 2nd wave from Thanksgiving, not yet from Christmas, New Year’s Eve

Coronavirus (Image provided by U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)

The Essex County Health Department on Monday reported 57 new cases of COVID-19 discovered since Dec. 31, bringing the total active cases countywide to 126. That’s the highest number of cases in this county at one time ever.

A spike in COVID-19 cases is happening across the North Country region. Franklin County Public Health reported 49 new cases of COVID-19 between Dec. 31 and Monday, and the Clinton County Health Department reported 232 new cases in that same time frame.

The North Country’s seven-day average test positivity rate hit 9.02% on Sunday, its highest ever.

Just before the New Year on Dec. 30, Essex County Public Health Director Linda Beers said the county’s case numbers are “unprecedented.”

This spike, she said, is not Christmas-related. It’s the second wave of the post-Thanksgiving coronavirus spike. Beers said gatherings on Nov. 26 resulted in spread of the virus to people who tested positive in the next two weeks. They, in turn, spread the virus to others around them, who began testing positive recently.

The incubation period for the coronavirus — the amount of time it takes after an exposure before a person starts experiencing symptoms — ranges anywhere from two to 14 days. People generally begin to experience symptoms five to six days after exposure. COVID-19 is often transmitted before people experience symptoms — and not everyone who contracts COVID-19 will experience symptoms.

There were New Year’s Eve gatherings in the Tri-Lakes area. Some were parties conducted in private, but some were out in the open. In Lake Placid, Main Street was packed with people on Dec. 31. Most visitors to the street were wearing masks in the evening, but not all. Restaurants were bustling in the evening, some — such as Smoke Signals — with lines out the door similar to what was seen during the summertime.

Between the incubation period and COVID-19 test turnaround times, the impact of New Year’s Eve gatherings may not be seen for a few weeks, if there is an impact locally.

During a press briefing with Gov. Andrew Cuomo last month, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the federal government’s top infectious disease expert, warned New Yorkers about a “surge upon a surge” — a new wave of infections that could happen after the post-Thanksgiving wave.

“In regard to the issue of the holiday spread and the peaks, they are going to be superimposed on each other,” Fauci told Cuomo. “So you would expect the full brunt of the travel and family setting gatherings with friends that you alluded to as a problem, you would expect the effect of the Thanksgiving surge in probably another week-and-a-half from now. It’s usually two weeks from the time of the event. The problem is, that’s going to come right up to the beginning of the Christmas and Hanukkah potential surge. So you have a surge upon a surge, and then before you can handle that, more people are going to travel over Christmas. They’re going to have more of those family and friend gatherings that you accurately said are an issue.

“So if those two things happen and we don’t mitigate well and we don’t listen to the public health measures that we need to follow, then we could start seeing things get really get bad in the middle of January,” he said.

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