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Hochul’s approval ratings tick up

But voters remain unconvinced she can tackle state’s problems

Gov. Kathy Hochul speaks at the Mountain Pass Lodge at Mount Van Hoevenberg in Lake Placid Tuesday. (Enterprise photo —Sydney Emerson)

ALBANY — Voters now have a more positive view of Gov. Kathy Hochul than they have for nearly a year, according to the latest polling from the Siena College Research Institute, but they still don’t seem convinced in her ability to achieve her stated goals.

On Monday, the SCRI released the results of its latest statewide poll, in which 45% of respondents said they had a favorable view of Hochul generally, compared to 42% with a generally unfavorable opinion of her. It’s the first time since Feb. 2023 that the favorable view has held more voters than the unfavorable one.

At the same time, more than half of New York voters give Hochul high marks for her job performance, at 52%, compared to 43% with a negative view of her job performance. But when asked if they think Hochul will be able to achieve the five key issues she’s specified as legislative goals for 2024, voters roundly said they think she won’t make progress.

In her State of the State address and subsequent executive budget proposal, Hochul said she will work to tackle a number of issues facing New York; making New York a desirable place to live, bringing key parts of artificial intelligence development to the state, improving public safety, fixing the mental healthcare system, and increasing available housing stock.

“On several issues Hochul has championed, voters think she will not make progress in the next year,” said Steven Greenberg, pollster for SCRI. “Voters think, 54% to 33%, that Hochul will not make living in New York more desirable.

By 44% to 26%, they say she won’t make New York the A.I. capital of the world, including a majority of Republicans and pluralities of Democrats and independents. While Democrats give Hochul props on all the other issues, a majority of both Republicans and independents say she will not make progress on any of those four issues.”

The SCRI poll asked respondents which issue they think Hochul has done the best at managing thus far: healthcare, education, crime, housing and the migrant influx. Greenberg said the largest proportion of voters, 28% of respondents, said she has successfully handled none of those topics. Of those who did choose an issue to give Hochul credit for, 23% said healthcare and mental health was her most successful issue.

On other state issues, voters said they remain concerned about the influx of immigrants and people seeking asylum in New York state.

With nearly 70,000 people who crossed into the U.S. at the southern border now in New York, over 80% of voters reached by SCRI said they have ongoing concerns over that influx of people needing assistance.

Hochul recently called for a plan to spend $2.4 billion in New York’s 2024-25 fiscal year on the immigrants.

Voters were overwhelmingly negative on the role elected officials have played in that saga as well, with 54% of people saying NYC Mayor Eric Adams has mismanaged the situation, 59% for Hochul and 67% for President Joe Biden.

Many voters also reported crime and public safety as ongoing worries, with 22% of people saying they think poverty is a major contributor to crime in New York.

Democrats remain the most popular pick for New York voters for representatives in Congress as well — despite recent GOP successes in competitive Congressional races downstate, 49% of New York voters said they would prefer to vote for a Democrat to represent them in Congress, compared to 34% who said they would prefer a Republican Congressperson.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y, who is up for reelection this year, had a 43% favorable rating to a 28% unfavorable rating, with 43% of voters reporting they would vote for Gillibrand again compared to 38% who said they’d prefer another person to be New York’s junior senator.

The SCRI poll also asked New York voters about their thoughts on national and international issues, like federal defense aid for Ukraine and Israel and the 2024 presidential race.

What SCRI found is that New Yorkers broadly support Ukraine aid but are opposed to aid for Israel, and the issue is broadly partisan on Ukraine but not easily defined by party for Israel.

Most Democrats support defense aid for Ukraine, almost two-to-one, but most Republicans oppose it by an equal margin, and independents are split evenly.

On Israel, most Democrats oppose U.S. defense aid, 47% to 37% who support it, with a similar split among independent voters. Republicans are only slightly more in support of Israeli defense aid, 46% to 44% who oppose it.

“White voters support Israeli aid by 10 points and Ukrainian aid by 20 points, while Black and Latino voters oppose both,” Greenberg said. “Younger voters also oppose aid to both countries, while older voters strongly support aid for both countries.”

Almost half of all voters in New York are registered Democrats. The remaining half is split by independents, who make up about 24% of the voting base in New York, and Republicans with 22% of the voting base.

The remainder is split among third-party voters in right- and left-wing fringe parties, who often vote similarly to independent voters when considered together.

On the national presidential race, while former President Donald Trump remains the most popular pick among Republicans in New York, Biden remains the most favored to win New York.

Trump has a very negative favorability rating on average in New York, with 37% saying they have a positive view of the former president compared to 57% with a negative view.

But among Republicans, Trump remains firmly popular, with 74% of New York Republicans saying they want him as their nominee and 80% saying they view him favorably.

President Biden has a worse handle on his party in New York, with only 70% of New York Democrats saying they have a positive view of him.

Independents view him unfavorably by 71%, and 90% of Republicans share that view.

In the race against Trump, Biden fares better, with Biden at 46% to Trump’s 37% in New York.

When put in a four-way race against fringe third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Cornell West, Biden leads 41% to Trump’s 28%, with Kennedy pulling 13% and West 3%.

That’s a diminished showing compared to 2020, when Biden carried 61% of the vote in New York to Trump’s 38%.

“Biden wins the lion’s share of Democrats, 75% in the head-to-head matchup, however Trump has the support of 82% of Republicans and a commanding 45-26% lead with independents,” Greenberg said.

This SCRI poll was conducted between Jan. 14 and 17, reaching 807 registered New York voters via landline, cell phone and online polling panel. The margin of error is 4.5% in either direction.

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