As we approach an election, we often think that the person we elect has more power than they really do. This is especially true of presidential candidates.

In this election cycle, one of the biggest issues is the economy. Many Trump supporters look back and think that they were better off during his prior term than they are today. The economy, however, changes slowly. It is like trying to turn an ocean liner around. It can go several miles after the wheel is turned before the liner slowly responds. Eventually it can turn and reverse direction, but it takes time and can carve a very wide path. The actions of any administration often take two or even three years to impact the economy. Actions take to boost the economy, reduce unemployment or lower inflation take time to happen.

If one looks back over several administration changes, the economy at the end of the term was often very different than during the first two years of the term. The impact of changes made during a presidential administration often take time to come to full fruition. This can take years and even extend into the next presidency.

If we look at the U.S. inflation rate over the past 10 years, in 2014 and 2015 it was less than 1%. In 2016, the last year of the Obama administration, it was 2.1%. This was down from over 3.4% in 2008, the first year of the Obama administration. In 2017-2020, it hovered in the 2% range. These were the early Trump years. Inflation then spiked in 2021 and 2022, the first two years of the Biden administration and reached yearly averages of about 7%.

This, however, was not limited to the U,S. Worldwide, as the COVID pandemic spread, inflation went wild everywhere as supply lines failed and products of all types became very dear. The U.S. tried to boost our economy in the face of huge unemployment due to COVID by infusing three large quantities of money into the public sector to make up for lost wages due to closures. The first of these was under the Trump administration, and the second two during the first year of the Biden administration. As things stabilized and through action by both the Biden administration and the Fed, inflation has again cooled off and dropped to 3.4% in 2023 and is now down to about 2.4% in 2024.

As we look at these past 10 years, and consider the ocean liner example, were the first couple years of the Trump administration really a result of actions taken by that administration or were they the late impacts of the economic policies of the Obama administration? Likewise, was the spike in inflation and unemployment of 2021-2022 the effect of the Biden administration or was it caused by COVID like everywhere on the planet? Has the improvement in inflation in 2023 and 2024 been the result of the actions of the Fed and the Biden policies or just happenstance? If the economy of 2025 and 2026 looks good, will that be the result of the newly elected president or a late response to the current administration? If the economy tanks in 2025 and 2026, who is responsible?

One of the biggest achievements of the Obama administration was the Affordable Care Act, which helped many more people be able to get affordable health care and has helped slow the rise of health care costs. It allowed people with preexisting conditions to get affordable care and allowed children under 26 to remain on their parent’s insurance. Many of the parts of that plan did not fully go into effect until after Obama left office.

Likewise, one of the signature achievements of the Biden administration was the Inflation Reduction Act, which included money for many infrastructure projects and for the development of microchip factories and other industrial support. It takes time to build new factories. It takes time to roll out infrastructure projects to build and repair roads, bridges, airports, etc. The impact of these programs are just starting to be felt and will continue to show progress for another two to four years, so who will take credit for them after 2025 and beyond?

As you make your final decision on who to vote for in the next few days, keep in mind that some things take time to shake out and try to remember what actions and programs really caused the economy to move as it does.

(David G. Welch, MD, lives in Lake Placid.)