ALBANY — After Democrats won control of the state Senate two years ago, progressive measures that had been bottled up for years were suddenly on the statehouse front burner.

Since then, restrictions have been imposed on the use of cash bail, immigrants in the country without authorization were allowed to qualify for state driver’s licenses, wage increases and workplace protections have been given to farmworkers and more gun control measures went on the books.

Democrats, going into the Nov. 3 election, hold 40 of the 63 seats in Albany’s upper legislative chamber.

“Endangered species”

If they emerge with a net gain of three seats, their conference would hold a supermajority, giving them the ability to override vetoes Gov. Andrew Cuomo, also a Democrat, might be inclined to impose on bills they pass.

Should Democrats add to their advantage on Election Day, it would solidify the position of New York Republicans as “an endangered species,” said George Arzt, a veteran New York campaign strategist, adding: “You’re going to have Democrats pushing left issues and you’re going to be seeing more of a backlash from the law enforcement unions” opposed to the policies advancing in Albany.

Recent statewide polling has shown President Donald Trump, after nearly four years in office, has seen a drop in his popularity in some regions of the state, after handily winning most upstate counties in 2016, when as a GOP insurgent he defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in the national election.

“Would be tragic”

Sen. Betty Little, R-Queensbury, who is retiring from the Legislature at year’s end after representing the North Country after 18 years in the Senate, said she is hopeful the remaining Republicans can gain seats next month. But if the results favor Democrats, New York City concerns will dominate the statehouse agenda, muffling the voice of upstate representatives, she said.

“I think it would be tragic if that happens,” said Little. “The downstate issues are very prominent in that conference.”

Little said she is optimistic that individual GOP candidates for Senate seats won’t be weighed down by how voters view Trump.

“People are very conscious now about who they are voting for,” she said. “They don’t just go in and vote a straight line.”

Trump factor

The Trump factor could be significant in upstate regions that he lost in 2016 but now feature contests for open seats. Trump lost Monroe County in 2016, but two Republicans who won their races in that county in 2018 are not seeking reelection this year, setting the stage for open races.

“So that bodes well for Democrats,” said Luke Perry, professor of political science at Utica College.

“Trump’s popularity has fallen over the past three years and that is influencing campaigns at both the state and federal level,” Perry added.

He suggested that an Oct. 2 Siena College poll finding a third of New York Republicans now view Trump unfavorably could indicate problems for GOP candidates.

Pipe dream

Both the state legislative races and the congressional races this year take on an added dimension of importance because the outcomes are expected to influence how district lines are recalibrated for the House of Representatives and the two legislative chambers in Albany, Perry said.

Enthusiasm for Democrats in rural regions of upstate New York has intensified in recent weeks, said Judith Hunter, chairwoman of the New York State Rural Democratic Conference and the party’s chairwoman in Livingston County.

She said some upstate GOP candidates have been pitching what she branded “a pipe dream” of dividing the state in sections so the upstate region would not be controlled by downstate elected officials.

“They do this to gin up their base and reinforce the traditional message that downstate is the source of the problems upstate,” Hunter said. “The fact is we are very much helped by being with downstate. And this division is never going to happen.”

She said she expects unusually strong support for Democrats running in rural districts. “We have never had the demand we have now for lawn signs,” she said. “As soon as they come in, they fly out the door.”

GOP hope

But another GOP stalwart heading for retirement at year’s end sees opportunity for Republicans to begin a comeback Nov. 3.

“I think we have a great shot at picking up seats,” said state Sen. James Seward, R-Milford, who has served in the upper chamber since winning his first election 34 years ago.

“The last two years, we have had one-party downstate control of all the levers of state government,” Seward said. “The result is that New York has become less affordable”

Seward also contended the restrictions on the ability of judges to set bail for defendants has harmed public safety and contributed to outbreaks of violence.

The senator said the Democrats running both houses now advanced a new tax on broadband that has slowed efforts to extend the technology in the upstate region.

Fundraising boost

Traditionally, the party that holds the majority in Albany enjoys a fundraising advantage, and that pattern has not changed, with Democrats now having more campaign cash on hand than the GOP.

But the Republicans got a late injection of help, with wealthy perfume business heir Ronald Lauder organizing a $3 million effort to target potentially vulnerable Democrats for their support for cashless bail and revisions to evidence discovery rules that were opposed by prosecutors.

“Police officers across our state are being hung out to dry and vilified by politicians,” a web site run by Safer Together New York, bankrolled by Lauder, states.

Democrats contend the legislative changes to the criminal justice system were long overdue and addressed inequality in the way the cases of low-income defendants are handled in the courts.